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Tech prediction markets & live odds — page 176 | PredictPal · PredictPal

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Tech prediction markets

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All AI 2461 Tech Company Valuations 917 Big tech & chips 629 Space 483 Science 289 Through 40 Elevator 15 Software Engineering Trends 14 Space Tech & Exploration ✨ 9 Space Development 9 Software Industry Trends 5 Streamer 2

4,627 markets · page 176 of 193

Manifold· Play

Open

Will someone play Doom on Mars by the end of 2060?

Yes66¢

No34¢

Yes ≈ 66% chance

Ɱ105 Vol▲ 0pts—

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‹ Prev1…174175176177178…193Next ›

SOTA AI at EOY 2026 a reasoning model?

The market is pricing a near-certainty that a state-of-the-art AI reasoning model will exist by end of 2026, reflecting the rapid pace of AI advances and industry momentum, but the 94% odds may be overconfident given the lack of a clear definition for 'reasoning model' and the possibility of delays or underwhelming results.

Yes94¢

No6¢

Yes ≈ 94% chance

Ɱ317 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Will Google buys Nintendo in 2030?

Yes5¢

No95¢

Yes ≈ 5% chance

Ɱ808 Vol▲ 0pts4y

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A family member of Elon Musk reaches Mars by end of 2040

Yes16¢

No84¢

Yes ≈ 16% chance

Ɱ1.2K Vol▲ 0pts14y

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Will we get Rouge AI before 2031?

Yes10¢

No90¢

Yes ≈ 10% chance

Ɱ3.7K Vol▲ 0pts4y

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AI: Will someone train a $10B model by 2050?

Yes87¢

No14¢

Yes ≈ 87% chance

Ɱ622 Vol▲ 0pts—

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Will OpenAI and Anthropic’s S1s be a “massacre” for AI model companies?

Yes10¢

No90¢

Yes ≈ 10% chance

Ɱ231 Vol▲ 0pts2mo

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Will AI music generation have regressed between Halloween 2025 and 2026?

Yes19¢

No81¢

Yes ≈ 19% chance

Ɱ1.9K Vol▲ 0pts3mo

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Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?

Anthropic85¢

2 outcomes

Ɱ18.2K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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AI "devops" #1: Will there be an AI that can onboard as a dev by 2028?

Yes82¢

No18¢

Yes ≈ 82% chance

Ɱ370 Vol▲ 0pts1y

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Will NVIDIA release an RTX 5080 Ti?

Yes10¢

No90¢

Yes ≈ 10% chance

Ɱ213 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Will Microsoft Copilot inject ads into unrelated commits again?

Yes71¢

No29¢

Yes ≈ 71% chance

Ɱ140 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Will "Prompt injection in Google Translate reveals ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Yes11¢

No89¢

Yes ≈ 11% chance

Ɱ288 Vol▲ 0pts1y

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Will "Comparative advantage & AI" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Yes13¢

No87¢

Yes ≈ 13% chance

Ɱ100 Vol▲ 0pts6mo

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OpenAI and Anthropic will both hit their 2026 revenue goals in 2026

Yes92¢

No8¢

Yes ≈ 92% chance

Ɱ4.7K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Will a purely AI-based news agency exist by the year 2030?

Yes82¢

No18¢

Yes ≈ 82% chance

Ɱ23.3K Vol▲ 0pts3y

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Will Elon Musk spend a day in outer space?

Despite Musk's trillionaire status from SpaceX's IPO, the market is nearly split because there is no concrete plan or timeline for him personally to go to space.

Yes46¢

No54¢

Yes ≈ 46% chance

Ɱ554 Vol▲ 0pts—

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Will "I am worried about near-term non-LLM AI devel..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Yes14¢

No86¢

Yes ≈ 14% chance

Ɱ32 Vol▲ 0pts6mo

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Will Neuralink or similar tech be covered by a mainstream consumer available USA insurance plan by the end of 2035?

Yes17¢

No83¢

Yes ≈ 17% chance

Ɱ695 Vol▲ 0pts9y

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In 2032, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?

Yes69¢

No31¢

Yes ≈ 69% chance

Ɱ2.7K Vol▲ 0pts6y

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When will AI pass @jim's "agents benchmark"?

202678¢

8 outcomes

Ɱ10.9K Vol▲ 0pts4y

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Will AI be able to read minds by 2030?

Yes41¢

No59¢

Yes ≈ 41% chance

Ɱ911 Vol▲ 0pts3y

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Will an AR/VR product from Apple overtake iPhones 10 years after Vision Pro's launch?

Yes11¢

No89¢

Yes ≈ 11% chance

Ɱ223 Vol▲ 0pts7y

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AI model training time decreases fourfold by mid-2027?

Yes59¢

No42¢

Yes ≈ 59% chance

Ɱ210 Vol▲ 0pts11mo