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Tech prediction markets & live odds — page 177 | PredictPal · PredictPal

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Tech prediction markets

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All AI 2439 Tech Company Valuations 910 Big tech & chips 627 Space 474 Science 278 Through 40 Elevator 15 Software Engineering Trends 14 Space Tech & Exploration ✨ 9 Space Development 9 Software Industry Trends 5 Streamer 2

4,587 markets · page 177 of 192

Manifold· Play

Open

Will "The case for satiating cheaply-satisfied AI p..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Yes14¢

No86¢

Yes ≈ 14% chance

Ɱ7 Vol▲ 0pts1y

Manifold· Play

‹ Prev1…175176177178179…192Next ›

Open

By 2029, will AI be able to generate Video Games comparable to ~2023 Indie Games?

Yes75¢

No25¢

Yes ≈ 75% chance

Ɱ15.9K Vol▲ 0pts2y

Manifold· Play

Open

When will Starship first deploy a commercial* satellite to orbit?

By end of December 202887¢

11 outcomes

Ɱ15.4K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Open

Will there be an AI Companion app (friend, girlfriend, partner etc.) with 500 Million users before 2035? 🤖❤🧍‍♂️🤝💻

Yes68¢

No32¢

Yes ≈ 68% chance

Ɱ1.3K Vol▲ 0pts8y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will a primarily AI-generated work be nominated for a major entertainment award (Emmy, Grammy, Oscar, Tony) in 2026?

Yes12¢

No88¢

Yes ≈ 12% chance

Ɱ208 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Open

will research with at least 50% AI generated content win the Nobel Prize by 2030?

Yes22¢

No78¢

Yes ≈ 22% chance

Ɱ158 Vol▲ 0pts4y

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Open

Will the first Starship to land on Mars carry useful payload?

Yes78¢

No22¢

Yes ≈ 78% chance

Ɱ2K Vol▲ 0pts3y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will at least one Anthropic or OpenAI researcher buy one of Cayden Pierce's Mentra smartglasses by EOY2026?

Yes37¢

No63¢

Yes ≈ 37% chance

Ɱ30 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Open

Can the Cybertruck work on Mars?

Yes8¢

No92¢

Yes ≈ 8% chance

Ɱ394 Vol▲ 0pts18y

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Open

Will Amazon fully acquire, acqui‑hire, or own ≥ 50 % of Anthropic before 2029

Yes10¢

No90¢

Yes ≈ 10% chance

Ɱ2.1K Vol▲ 0pts2y

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Open

Will non-profit funding for AI safety reach 100 billion US dollars in a year before 2030?

Yes38¢

No62¢

Yes ≈ 38% chance

Ɱ562 Vol▲ 0pts3y

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Open

Will OpenAI release a competitor to GitHub in 2026?

Yes17¢

No84¢

Yes ≈ 17% chance

Ɱ663 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Open

Will the US enact AI regulation for all Mythos+ models in 2026?

Yes15¢

No85¢

Yes ≈ 15% chance

Ɱ18.2K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Open

Will xAI have an AI model restricted from public use in 2026?

Yes15¢

No85¢

Yes ≈ 15% chance

Ɱ2.4K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Open

Will Android still be a Google product in 2035?

Yes79¢

No21¢

Yes ≈ 79% chance

Ɱ248 Vol▲ 0pts8y

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Open

Will Helion deliver 10 MW of fusion-generated electricity to Microsoft before 2031?

Yes16¢

No85¢

Yes ≈ 16% chance

Ɱ1.4K Vol▲ 0pts5y

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Open

Will any BigLaw firm be "completely wrecked" by AI in the next year?

Yes27¢

No73¢

Yes ≈ 27% chance

Ɱ785 Vol▲ 0pts7mo

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Open

Will "OpenAI #15: More on OpenAI’s Paranoid Lawfare..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Yes8¢

No92¢

Yes ≈ 8% chance

Ɱ674 Vol▲ 0pts6mo

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In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie from a script?

Yes45¢

No55¢

Yes ≈ 45% chance

Ɱ1.7K Vol▲ 0pts1y

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Open

In 2028, will at least 3.5m Americans be talking at least weekly to an AI they consider a romantic companion?

Yes22¢

No78¢

Yes ≈ 22% chance

Ɱ3.3K Vol▲ 0pts1y

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Open

AWS or Microsoft release own frontier AI model?

Yes61¢

No39¢

Yes ≈ 61% chance

Ɱ192 Vol▲ 0pts1y

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Open

Will a substantial number of legal arbitrations use an ai arbitration by January 1, 2029?

Yes44¢

No56¢

Yes ≈ 44% chance

Ɱ660 Vol▲ 0pts2y

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Open

Will Tesla acquire Uber by 2030?

Yes9¢

No91¢

Yes ≈ 9% chance

Ɱ4.9K Vol▲ 0pts3y

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Open

Will food be grown on the moon before a human lands on mars

Yes76¢

No24¢

Yes ≈ 76% chance

Ɱ200 Vol▲ 0pts—