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Tech prediction markets & live odds — page 25 | PredictPal · PredictPal

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Tech prediction markets

AI milestones, product launches, and company outcomes priced by prediction markets.

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All AI 2632 Tech Company Valuations 987 Big tech & chips 665 Space 548 Science 342 Through 40 Elevator 16 Software Engineering Trends 15 Space Development 10 Space Tech & Exploration ✨ 9 Software Industry Trends 5 Streamer 2

2,873 markets · page 25 of 120

Manifold· Play

Open

Will we have an AI generated research paper accepted to > 1 top ML conference by 2030?

Yes83¢

No17¢

Yes ≈ 83% chance

Ɱ1.6K Vol▲ 0pts3y

Polymarket

Open

‹ Prev1…2324252627…120Next ›

Will the highest score achieved by a Meta model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher? — 60%+

Yes24¢

No77¢

Yes ≈ 24% chance

5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will we have at least one more AI winter before AGI is realized?

The market's 19% Yes probability reflects a strong consensus that the current AI boom, fueled by sustained investment and integration, will not be interrupted by a major downturn before AGI arrives, despite historical precedents of previous AI winters after hype cycles. The provided headlines are entirely unrelated to AI or technology, offering no tangible news to anchor the odds.

Yes19¢

No81¢

Yes ≈ 19% chance

Ɱ112K Vol▲ 0pts—

Polymarket

Open

Will the highest score achieved by a Meta model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher? — 65%+

Yes17¢

No84¢

Yes ≈ 17% chance

$68 Vol5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will we have end to end AI generated anime series by the end of 2027?

Yes72¢

No28¢

Yes ≈ 72% chance

Ɱ27K Vol▲ 0pts1y

Polymarket

Open

Will the highest score achieved by a Meta model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 70% or higher? — 70%+

Yes13¢

No87¢

Yes ≈ 13% chance

$94 Vol5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will an AI be able to write a passable novel before 2028?

Yes91¢

No9¢

Yes ≈ 91% chance

Ɱ7.2K Vol▲ 0pts1y

Polymarket

Open

Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher? — 55%+

Yes41¢

No60¢

Yes ≈ 41% chance

$192 Vol5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Google be worth less than OpenAI?

Yes30¢

No70¢

Yes ≈ 30% chance

Ɱ112 Vol▲ 0pts—

Polymarket

Open

Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher? — 60%+

Yes21¢

No80¢

Yes ≈ 21% chance

$671 Vol5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will a song produced using Grimes' AI vocal resource pass $1M in revenue?

Yes33¢

No68¢

Yes ≈ 33% chance

Ɱ82 Vol▲ 0pts3y

Polymarket

Open

Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher? — 65%+

Yes13¢

No87¢

Yes ≈ 13% chance

$353 Vol▲ 1pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will the US implement software export controls for frontier AI models by 2028?

Yes78¢

No22¢

Yes ≈ 78% chance

Ɱ593 Vol▲ 0pts2y

Polymarket

Open

Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 70% or higher? — 70%+

Yes9¢

No91¢

Yes ≈ 9% chance

$1.1K Vol5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Sam Altman be considered a grifter by 2030?

Yes52¢

No49¢

Yes ≈ 52% chance

Ɱ6.8K Vol▲ 0pts3y

Polymarket

Open

Next Kimi K model released by December 31, 2026?

Yes79¢

No21¢

Yes ≈ 79% chance

$298 Vol▲ 8pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Sam Altman leave open AI before 2028?

Yes25¢

No75¢

Yes ≈ 25% chance

Ɱ1.4K Vol▲ 0pts2y

Polymarket

Open

Will Ari Weinstein leave OpenAI by December 31, 2026?

Yes27¢

No73¢

Yes ≈ 27% chance

$11.7K Vol▼ 2pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Will Conrad Kramer leave OpenAI by December 31, 2026?

Yes49¢

No51¢

Yes ≈ 49% chance

$5.7K Vol▼ 1pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will GPT-5 make Manifold think very near-term AGI is more likely?

Yes11¢

No89¢

Yes ≈ 11% chance

Ɱ4.1K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?

Yes11¢

No90¢

Yes ≈ 11% chance

$90.5K Vol5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will a rogue AI system cause >$1B USD in damage in a single incident before 2030?

Yes36¢

No64¢

Yes ≈ 36% chance

Ɱ328 Vol▲ 0pts3y

Polymarket

Open

Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026?

Yes36¢

No64¢

Yes ≈ 36% chance

$38.2K Vol▲ 1pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will AI be able to accurately do my taxes by EOY 2026?

Yes60¢

No40¢

Yes ≈ 60% chance

Ɱ4.5K Vol▲ 0pts5mo