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Tech prediction markets & live odds — page 16 | PredictPal · PredictPal

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Tech prediction markets

AI milestones, product launches, and company outcomes priced by prediction markets.

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All AI 2467 Tech Company Valuations 920 Big tech & chips 630 Space 486 Science 289 Through 40 Elevator 15 Software Engineering Trends 14 Space Tech & Exploration ✨ 9 Space Development 9 Software Industry Trends 5 Streamer 2

2,698 markets · page 16 of 113

Manifold· Play

Open

Will an AI chatbot overtake Google as the most used search engine by 2030?

Yes41¢

No59¢

Yes ≈ 41% chance

Ɱ472 Vol▲ 0pts4y

Kalshi

Open

‹ Prev1…1415161718…113Next ›

Will any LLM score at least 95% on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2027? — At least 95%

Yes6¢

No94¢

Yes ≈ 6% chance

$1.3K Vol▲ 0pts1y

Polymarket

Open

Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher? — 65%+

Yes24¢

No76¢

Yes ≈ 24% chance

$1.4K Vol▼ 1pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

How much AI extinction risk would you accept?

Yes14¢

No86¢

Yes ≈ 14% chance

Ɱ181 Vol▲ 0pts—

Kalshi

Open

Will Meta release A model called Llama 5 or greater before Jan 2027? — Before 2027

Yes10¢

No90¢

Yes ≈ 10% chance

$75K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Will any AI model reach 1580 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?

Yes35¢

No65¢

Yes ≈ 35% chance

$48.6K Vol▼ 1pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

By when will LLM chess bots beat other engines? (Permanent)

The field is highly concentrated on the 2050-or-earlier and 2040-or-earlier options, together commanding 39% of probability, but the long tail of earlier dates (2027–2030) sums to 31%, reflecting a belief that an LLM-based engine could beat Stockfish within a few years if a breakthrough occurs, while the 2% on 'End of 2026 or earlier' shows extreme skepticism about immediate progress.

2050 or earlier20¢

10 outcomes

Ɱ370K Vol▲ 0pts—

Kalshi

Open

Will lowest priced of the any MacBook model on Apple.com be below $450 on November 27th, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET?

Yes1¢

No99¢

Yes ≈ 1% chance

$82 Vol▲ 0pts7mo

Polymarket

Open

Will Waymo launch in Tampa, FL by December 31 2026?

Yes96¢

No4¢

Yes ≈ 96% chance

$1.1K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

Will lowest priced of the any MacBook model on Apple.com be below $500 on November 27th, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET?

Yes6¢

No94¢

Yes ≈ 6% chance

$82 Vol▲ 0pts7mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will a sentient AI system have existed before 2030? [Resolves to 2100 expert consensus]

Yes43¢

No57¢

Yes ≈ 43% chance

Ɱ5K Vol▲ 0pts—

Polymarket

Open

Will Elon post "Claude" on X this week?

Yes33¢

No68¢

Yes ≈ 33% chance

$39 Vol▼ 11pts7d

Kalshi

Open

Will lowest priced of the any MacBook model on Apple.com be below $550 on November 27th, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET?

Yes28¢

No72¢

Yes ≈ 28% chance

$9 Vol▲ 0pts7mo

Polymarket

Open

Will OpenAI announce a tablet in 2026? — Tablet

Yes11¢

No89¢

Yes ≈ 11% chance

$13.5K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

WIll I work (at some point) at a top AI lab on safety in the next 5 years?

Yes74¢

No26¢

Yes ≈ 74% chance

Ɱ508 Vol▲ 0pts1y

Polymarket

Open

Which company has the best Text-to-Image AI end of August?

OpenAI78¢

27 outcomes

$6.4K Vol▲ 1pts1mo

Kalshi

Open

Will lowest priced of the any MacBook model on Apple.com be below $600 on November 27th, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET?

Yes38¢

No62¢

Yes ≈ 38% chance

$44 Vol▲ 0pts7mo

Manifold· Play

Open

When will a robot reliably pass "The Coffee Test"?

Before 203061¢

6 outcomes

Ɱ18.6K Vol▲ 0pts3y

Polymarket

Open

Next Mythos-Class Model released by July 31, 2026?

Yes3¢

No97¢

Yes ≈ 3% chance

$37.5K Vol▼ 0pts2mo

Kalshi

Open

Will lowest priced of the any MacBook model on Apple.com be below $650 on November 27th, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET?

Yes68¢

No32¢

Yes ≈ 68% chance

$706 Vol▲ 0pts7mo

Manifold· Play

Open

If a friendly AI takes control of humanity, which of the propositions ought it find true?

We could map the entirety of analytic philosophy using this question.94¢

23 outcomes

Ɱ11.3K Vol▲ 0pts—

Polymarket

Open

Will Anthropic remove paid plan access for Fable 5 by July 31, 2026?

Yes1¢

No99¢

Yes ≈ 1% chance

$16.9K Vol▼ 0pts5d

Kalshi

Open

Will lowest priced of the any MacBook model on Apple.com be below $700 on November 27th, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET?

Yes85¢

No15¢

Yes ≈ 85% chance

$38 Vol▲ 0pts7mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will mechanistic interpretability be essentially solved for GPT-3 before 2030?

Yes13¢

No87¢

Yes ≈ 13% chance

Ɱ13.8K Vol▲ 0pts3y