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Tech prediction markets & live odds — page 21 | PredictPal · PredictPal

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Tech prediction markets

AI milestones, product launches, and company outcomes priced by prediction markets.

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All AI 2439 Tech Company Valuations 910 Big tech & chips 627 Space 474 Science 278 Through 40 Elevator 15 Software Engineering Trends 14 Space Tech & Exploration ✨ 9 Space Development 9 Software Industry Trends 5 Streamer 2

4,587 markets · page 21 of 192

Kalshi

Open

Will any of the major AI companies pause research before 2027? — Before 2027

Yes9¢

No91¢

Yes ≈ 9% chance

$55.5K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

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Will any country recognize AI or robots as non human persons with legal rights before the end of 2055?

Yes58¢

No42¢

Yes ≈ 58% chance

Ɱ1.4K Vol▲ 0pts—

Polymarket

Open

Third-Best Chinese AI Company end of August?

Other50¢

25 outcomes

$5.4K Vol▲ 0pts1mo

Kalshi

Open

Will the H200 compute per hour price be above $5.49 by Dec 31? — Above $5.49

Yes83¢

No17¢

Yes ≈ 83% chance

$4.4K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will China deploy domestic EUV sub-7nm chips for major tech by EOY 2026?

Yes7¢

No93¢

Yes ≈ 7% chance

Ɱ483 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

#3 AI Lab end of August? (Style Control On)

Company A50¢

32 outcomes

$2K Vol▲ 0pts1mo

Kalshi

Open

Will the B200 compute per hour price be above $4.86 on Jul 31? — Above $4.86

Yes98¢

No2¢

Yes ≈ 98% chance

$380 Vol▲ 0pts5d

Manifold· Play

Open

Can an LLM be funny in 2026?

Yes47¢

No53¢

Yes ≈ 47% chance

Ɱ610 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

#2 AI Lab end of September? (Style Control On)

Company A50¢

32 outcomes

$73 Vol▲ 0pts2mo

Kalshi

Open

Will the B200 compute per hour price be above $3.86 on Jul 31? — Above $3.86

Yes99¢

No1¢

Yes ≈ 99% chance

$316 Vol▲ 0pts5d

Manifold· Play

Open

AI beats Minecraft (RSG) in under 10 minutes before 2029?

Yes42¢

No58¢

Yes ≈ 42% chance

Ɱ10.3K Vol▲ 0pts2y

Polymarket

Open

Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 75% or higher? — 75%+

Yes29¢

No71¢

Yes ≈ 29% chance

$287 Vol▲ 24pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

Will any AI model have a score of at least 1600 before Jan 1, 2027 — At least 1600 score

Yes5¢

No95¢

Yes ≈ 5% chance

$17.6K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Navier-Stokes be solved with the help of Google or Alphabet scientists by the end of 2027?

Despite recent AI-assisted progress in identifying glitches in fluid equations, the market heavily doubts that the Navier-Stokes problem will be solved by end of 2027 with explicit Google/Alphabet involvement, reflecting the problem's extreme difficulty and the specificity of the condition.

Yes9¢

No91¢

Yes ≈ 9% chance

Ɱ66.7K Vol▲ 0pts1y

Polymarket

Open

#1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on July 31?

App B50¢

14 outcomes

$756 Vol▼ 1pts5d

Kalshi

Open

Will the H100 SXM compute per hour price be above $2.46 on Jul 31? — Above $2.46

Yes87¢

No13¢

Yes ≈ 87% chance

$540 Vol▲ 0pts5d

Polymarket

Open

Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31? — #1

Yes11¢

No90¢

Yes ≈ 11% chance

$60.3K Vol5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will a model of chatGPT state lab-leak theory is the origin of covid 19 before 2030?

Yes80¢

No20¢

Yes ≈ 80% chance

Ɱ421 Vol▲ 0pts4y

Kalshi

Open

How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026? — Above 180

Yes14¢

No86¢

Yes ≈ 14% chance

$106K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Will Elon post "China" on X this week?

Yes21¢

No80¢

Yes ≈ 21% chance

$62 Vol▼ 23pts7d

Manifold· Play

Open

AI honesty #1: by 2027 will we have AI that doesn't hallucinate random nonsense?

Yes44¢

No56¢

Yes ≈ 44% chance

Ɱ8.1K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

Will SpaceX land anything on Mars before 2030? — Before 2030

Yes29¢

No71¢

Yes ≈ 29% chance

$84.1K Vol▲ 0pts3y

Polymarket

Open

Will Elon post "IPO" on X this week?

Yes17¢

No84¢

Yes ≈ 17% chance

$62 Vol▼ 28pts7d

Manifold· Play

Open

Will an AI chatbot overtake Google as the most used search engine by 2030?

Yes41¢

No59¢

Yes ≈ 41% chance

Ɱ472 Vol▲ 0pts4y