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Tech prediction markets & live odds — page 23 | PredictPal · PredictPal

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Tech prediction markets

AI milestones, product launches, and company outcomes priced by prediction markets.

🔭 Compare tech odds across venues →

All AI 2461 Tech Company Valuations 917 Big tech & chips 629 Space 483 Science 289 Through 40 Elevator 15 Software Engineering Trends 14 Space Tech & Exploration ✨ 9 Space Development 9 Software Industry Trends 5 Streamer 2

4,627 markets · page 23 of 193

Kalshi

Open

Will the H100 SXM compute per hour price be above $2.31 on Jul 31? — Above $2.31

Yes96¢

No4¢

Yes ≈ 96% chance

$417 Vol▲ 0pts5d

Polymarket

Open

‹ Prev1…2122232425…193Next ›

Small Exchange

Yes8¢

No93¢

Yes ≈ 8% chance

$3.1K Vol▼ 1pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will there be a year where Apple does not release a new iPhone?

Yes30¢

No70¢

Yes ≈ 30% chance

Ɱ533 Vol▲ 0pts18y

Kalshi

Open

Will the H100 SXM compute per hour price be above $2.36 on Jul 31? — Above $2.36

Yes95¢

No5¢

Yes ≈ 95% chance

$408 Vol▲ 0pts5d

Polymarket

Open

Will Grok AI beat T1 in 2026?

Yes3¢

No97¢

Yes ≈ 3% chance

$62.7K Vol▼ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will a manned mission to Mars be launched by the year 2030?

Yes11¢

No89¢

Yes ≈ 11% chance

Ɱ530 Vol▲ 0pts4y

Kalshi

Open

When will the first useful quantum computer be developed? — Before 2035

Yes53¢

No47¢

Yes ≈ 53% chance

$7.2K Vol▲ 0pts8y

Polymarket

Open

Will a Chinese company have one of the top 5 AI models by December 31? — #5

Yes43¢

No57¢

Yes ≈ 43% chance

$17.7K Vol▼ 2pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

Will the B200 compute per hour price be above $5.56 on Jul 31? — Above $5.56

Yes92¢

No8¢

Yes ≈ 92% chance

$223 Vol▲ 0pts5d

Manifold· Play

Open

WIll I work (at some point) at a top AI lab on safety in the next 5 years?

Yes74¢

No26¢

Yes ≈ 74% chance

Ɱ508 Vol▲ 0pts1y

Polymarket

Open

Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?

Yes28¢

No72¢

Yes ≈ 28% chance

$301K Vol▲ 1pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026? — Above 160

Yes42¢

No58¢

Yes ≈ 42% chance

$145K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

When will a robot reliably pass "The Coffee Test"?

Before 203061¢

6 outcomes

Ɱ18.6K Vol▲ 0pts3y

Polymarket

Open

Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?

Yes19¢

No81¢

Yes ≈ 19% chance

$81.8K Vol▲ 1pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

Will OpenAI release GPT-6 before Nov 1, 2026? — Before Nov 1, 2026

Yes80¢

No20¢

Yes ≈ 80% chance

$31.2K Vol▲ 0pts3mo

Manifold· Play

Open

If a friendly AI takes control of humanity, which of the propositions ought it find true?

We could map the entirety of analytic philosophy using this question.94¢

23 outcomes

Ɱ11.3K Vol▲ 0pts—

Polymarket

Open

Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher? — 60%+

Yes11¢

No90¢

Yes ≈ 11% chance

$236 Vol▼ 1pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

Republic of the Congo

Yes12¢

No88¢

Yes ≈ 12% chance

$710 Vol▲ 0pts2mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will the first human step foot on Mars on exactly January 1st 2036?

Yes4¢

No96¢

Yes ≈ 4% chance

Ɱ1.6K Vol▲ 0pts9y

Polymarket

Open

Will OpenAI announce a ring in 2026? — Ring

Yes8¢

No92¢

Yes ≈ 8% chance

$11.5K Vol5mo

Kalshi

Open

How many launches will all U.S.-licensed commercial launch providers cumulatively have in Jul 2026? — Above 17

Yes2¢

No98¢

Yes ≈ 2% chance

$5.2K Vol▲ 0pts12d

Polymarket

Open

FDA approves Daraxonrasib this year?

Yes40¢

No61¢

Yes ≈ 40% chance

$1.4K Vol▼ 5pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will mechanistic interpretability be essentially solved for GPT-3 before 2030?

Yes13¢

No87¢

Yes ≈ 13% chance

Ɱ13.8K Vol▲ 0pts3y

Kalshi

Open

How many launches will all U.S.-licensed commercial operators combined have in July 2026? — Above 16

Yes2¢

No98¢

Yes ≈ 2% chance

$6.6K Vol▲ 0pts12d