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Tech prediction markets & live odds — page 20 | PredictPal · PredictPal

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Tech prediction markets

AI milestones, product launches, and company outcomes priced by prediction markets.

🔭 Compare tech odds across venues →

All AI 2403 Tech Company Valuations 893 Big tech & chips 615 Space 462 Science 270 Through 40 Elevator 15 Software Engineering Trends 14 Space Development 9 Space Tech & Exploration ✨ 8 Software Industry Trends 5 Streamer 2

4,523 markets · page 20 of 189

Manifold· Play

Open

Will China deploy domestic EUV sub-7nm chips for major tech by EOY 2026?

Yes7¢

No93¢

Yes ≈ 7% chance

Ɱ483 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

‹ Prev1…1819202122…189Next ›

When will Tesla release Model Y to the public? — Before 2027

Yes6¢

No94¢

Yes ≈ 6% chance

$25.2K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Will Apple stop selling MacBook Neo?

Yes3¢

No97¢

Yes ≈ 3% chance

$1.4K Vol▼ 2pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

When will the first useful quantum computer be developed? — Before 2030

Yes36¢

No64¢

Yes ≈ 36% chance

$11.3K Vol▲ 0pts3y

Manifold· Play

Open

Can an LLM be funny in 2026?

Yes47¢

No53¢

Yes ≈ 47% chance

Ɱ610 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?

The market overwhelmingly expects GPT-6 in 2026, but recent GPT-5.6 releases and scattered product launches suggest OpenAI is iterating incrementally rather than rushing a flagship, casting doubt on a definitive GPT-6 launch this year.

Yes89¢

No12¢

Yes ≈ 89% chance

$80.8K Vol5mo

Kalshi

Open

How many launches will all U.S.-licensed commercial launch providers cumulatively have in Jul 2026? — Above 17

Yes2¢

No98¢

Yes ≈ 2% chance

$5.2K Vol▲ 0pts12d

Manifold· Play

Open

AI beats Minecraft (RSG) in under 10 minutes before 2029?

Yes42¢

No58¢

Yes ≈ 42% chance

Ɱ10.3K Vol▲ 0pts2y

Polymarket

Open

Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher? — 50%+

The market's low confidence (34%) in a Grok model hitting 50%+ on Humanity's Last Exam reflects the extreme difficulty of this benchmark, where even frontier models currently score below 10%, and no clear recent progress has been visible to shift expectations up.

Yes33¢

No68¢

Yes ≈ 33% chance

$1.1K Vol▼ 7pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

Will the H200 compute per hour price be above $3.95 on Jul 31? — Above $3.95

Yes85¢

No15¢

Yes ≈ 85% chance

$1.5K Vol▲ 0pts5d

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Navier-Stokes be solved with the help of Google or Alphabet scientists by the end of 2027?

Despite recent AI-assisted progress in identifying glitches in fluid equations, the market heavily doubts that the Navier-Stokes problem will be solved by end of 2027 with explicit Google/Alphabet involvement, reflecting the problem's extreme difficulty and the specificity of the condition.

Yes9¢

No91¢

Yes ≈ 9% chance

Ɱ66.7K Vol▲ 0pts1y

Polymarket

Open

Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31? — ↑ 1550

Yes26¢

No74¢

Yes ≈ 26% chance

$44.5K Vol5mo

Kalshi

Open

Will any AI model have a score of at least 1550 before Jan 1, 2027 — At least 1550 score

Yes20¢

No80¢

Yes ≈ 20% chance

$41.3K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will a model of chatGPT state lab-leak theory is the origin of covid 19 before 2030?

Yes80¢

No20¢

Yes ≈ 80% chance

Ɱ421 Vol▲ 0pts4y

Polymarket

Open

Confirmed US Screwworm case in Livestock beyond Texas by August 30?

Yes24¢

No77¢

Yes ≈ 24% chance

$1.3K Vol▼ 15pts—

Kalshi

Open

How many launches will all U.S.-licensed commercial launch providers cumulatively have in Jul 2026? — Above 18

Yes4¢

No96¢

Yes ≈ 4% chance

$1.2K Vol▲ 0pts12d

Manifold· Play

Open

AI honesty #1: by 2027 will we have AI that doesn't hallucinate random nonsense?

Yes44¢

No56¢

Yes ≈ 44% chance

Ɱ8.1K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Will OpenAI announce a tablet in 2026? — Tablet

Yes11¢

No89¢

Yes ≈ 11% chance

$13.5K Vol▼ 0pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

Grants license

The market heavily favors no approval by year-end, but the real story is that none of the recent headlines mention nuclear regulation or NRC licensing, suggesting no visible policy or industry momentum toward a new combined license in the remaining five months.

Yes12¢

No88¢

Yes ≈ 12% chance

$698K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will an AI chatbot overtake Google as the most used search engine by 2030?

Yes41¢

No59¢

Yes ≈ 41% chance

Ɱ472 Vol▲ 0pts4y

Polymarket

Open

Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026?

Yes59¢

No42¢

Yes ≈ 59% chance

$36.7K Vol▼ 1pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

Will Olivia Dunne be on the cover of 2027 Sports Illustrated Swimsuit Issue?

Yes5¢

No95¢

Yes ≈ 5% chance

$175 Vol▲ 0pts1y

Manifold· Play

Open

How much AI extinction risk would you accept?

Yes14¢

No86¢

Yes ≈ 14% chance

Ɱ181 Vol▲ 0pts—

Polymarket

Open

Third-Best Chinese AI Company end of August?

Other50¢

25 outcomes

$5.4K Vol▲ 0pts1mo