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Tech prediction markets & live odds — page 22 | PredictPal · PredictPal

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Tech prediction markets

AI milestones, product launches, and company outcomes priced by prediction markets.

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All AI 2439 Tech Company Valuations 910 Big tech & chips 627 Space 474 Science 278 Through 40 Elevator 15 Software Engineering Trends 14 Space Tech & Exploration ✨ 9 Space Development 9 Software Industry Trends 5 Streamer 2

4,587 markets · page 22 of 192

Kalshi

Open

Will the H200 compute per hour price be above $3.85 on Jul 31? — Above $3.85

Yes84¢

No16¢

Yes ≈ 84% chance

$695 Vol▲ 0pts5d

Polymarket

Open

‹ Prev1…2021222324…192Next ›

Will Elon post "Texas" on X this week?

Yes24¢

No76¢

Yes ≈ 24% chance

$61 Vol▼ 20pts7d

Manifold· Play

Open

How much AI extinction risk would you accept?

Yes14¢

No86¢

Yes ≈ 14% chance

Ɱ181 Vol▲ 0pts—

Kalshi

Open

Will the FDA approve midomafetamine / MDMA for PTSD before Jan 1, 2027? — Before Jan 1, 2027

Yes10¢

No90¢

Yes ≈ 10% chance

$774 Vol▼ 2pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Will OpenAI announce a tablet in 2026? — Tablet

Yes11¢

No89¢

Yes ≈ 11% chance

$13.5K Vol▲ 1pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Manifold have a team offsite in space by 2050?

Yes5¢

No95¢

Yes ≈ 5% chance

Ɱ3K Vol▲ 0pts—

Kalshi

Open

Will the B200 compute per hour price be above $5.16 on Jul 31? — Above $5.16

Yes95¢

No5¢

Yes ≈ 95% chance

$1.7K Vol▲ 0pts5d

Polymarket

Open

Best Chinese AI Company end of September?

Alibaba65¢

25 outcomes

$12.3K Vol▲ 0pts2mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will a baby be born on the moon before someone walks on Mars?

Yes8¢

No92¢

Yes ≈ 8% chance

Ɱ1.1K Vol▲ 0pts—

Kalshi

Open

Above 18000 Cyclosporiasis cases in the United States during 2026 — Above 18k

Yes44¢

No56¢

Yes ≈ 44% chance

$918 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by October 31, 2026?

Yes22¢

No79¢

Yes ≈ 22% chance

$5.7K Vol5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

By when will LLM chess bots beat other engines? (Permanent)

The field is highly concentrated on the 2050-or-earlier and 2040-or-earlier options, together commanding 39% of probability, but the long tail of earlier dates (2027–2030) sums to 31%, reflecting a belief that an LLM-based engine could beat Stockfish within a few years if a breakthrough occurs, while the 2% on 'End of 2026 or earlier' shows extreme skepticism about immediate progress.

2050 or earlier20¢

10 outcomes

Ɱ370K Vol▲ 0pts—

Kalshi

Open

Will Tesla Inc. report Above 1.75 million total deliveries in 2026?

Yes45¢

No55¢

Yes ≈ 45% chance

$9.2K Vol▲ 0pts1y

Polymarket

Open

Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1600 by December 31? — ↑ 1600

Yes11¢

No90¢

Yes ≈ 11% chance

$21.7K Vol5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will patrick finley of georgia tech [https://www.linkedin.com/in/patrickfinley/] get married by EOY 2030?

Yes28¢

No72¢

Yes ≈ 28% chance

Ɱ30 Vol▲ 0pts4y

Kalshi

Open

Will the B200 compute per hour price be above $5.46 on Jul 31? — Above $5.46

Yes95¢

No5¢

Yes ≈ 95% chance

$359 Vol▲ 0pts5d

Polymarket

Open

Will Waymo launch in Las Vegas, NV by December 31 2026?

Yes79¢

No21¢

Yes ≈ 79% chance

$1.2K Vol▼ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will a sentient AI system have existed before 2030? [Resolves to 2100 expert consensus]

Yes43¢

No57¢

Yes ≈ 43% chance

Ɱ5K Vol▲ 0pts—

Kalshi

Open

When will Intellia Therapeutics, Inc. submit a BLA for Lonvoguran Ziclumeran (lonvo-z) to the FDA? — before 2027

Yes78¢

No22¢

Yes ≈ 78% chance

$584 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Will the highest recorded wind on Mt. Washington in July be at least 110 mph? — ≥110 mph

Yes7¢

No93¢

Yes ≈ 7% chance

$3.3K Vol▲ 1pts5d

Manifold· Play

Open

Will there be a year where Apple does not release a new iPhone?

Yes30¢

No70¢

Yes ≈ 30% chance

Ɱ533 Vol▲ 0pts18y

Kalshi

Open

Will the H100 SXM compute per hour price be above $2.31 on Jul 31? — Above $2.31

Yes96¢

No4¢

Yes ≈ 96% chance

$417 Vol▲ 0pts5d

Polymarket

Open

Third-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of August?

Other50¢

30 outcomes

$1.6K Vol▲ 0pts1mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will a manned mission to Mars be launched by the year 2030?

Yes11¢

No89¢

Yes ≈ 11% chance

Ɱ530 Vol▲ 0pts4y