AI milestones, product launches, and company outcomes priced by prediction markets.
4,481 markets · page 9 of 187
Yes ≈ 27% chance
Yes ≈ 99% chance
Yes ≈ 46% chance
Yes ≈ 90% chance
The market heavily discounts a model reaching 1540 Arena Score by September 2026, likely reflecting a belief that LLM performance gains are plateauing even as China's competitive push intensifies (Fortune, Apr 16).
Yes ≈ 8% chance
Yes ≈ 40% chance
The field is wide open with 39 options and the top three barely above 5%, but generating labeled diagrams is at 100% because it is the most concrete and verifiable candidate, while the next tier clusters around 75-88%, reflecting uncertainty about subjective criteria like natural conversations and taxes.
39 outcomes
Yes ≈ 65% chance
34 outcomes
Yes ≈ 84% chance
Yes ≈ 10% chance
Yes ≈ 5% chance
29 outcomes
Yes ≈ 51% chance
Yes ≈ 65% chance
Yes ≈ 98% chance
Yes ≈ 36% chance
30 outcomes
Yes ≈ 56% chance