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Tech prediction markets & live odds — page 11 | PredictPal · PredictPal

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Tech prediction markets

AI milestones, product launches, and company outcomes priced by prediction markets.

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All AI 2439 Tech Company Valuations 910 Big tech & chips 627 Space 474 Science 278 Through 40 Elevator 15 Software Engineering Trends 14 Space Tech & Exploration ✨ 9 Space Development 9 Software Industry Trends 5 Streamer 2

4,587 markets · page 11 of 192

Manifold· Play

Open

Will AI contribute novel theorywork to agent foundations before 2028?

Yes31¢

No69¢

Yes ≈ 31% chance

Ɱ276 Vol▲ 0pts1y

Polymarket

Open

‹ Prev1…910111213…192Next ›

How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?

5-667¢

8 outcomes

$490K Vol▼ 4pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

Will Anthropic release Mythos before Jan 1, 2027? — Before Jan 1, 2027

Yes17¢

No83¢

Yes ≈ 17% chance

$190K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029?

The market is pricing a slight edge for a machine passing a specific, high-bar version of the Turing test by 2029, but the near-coin-flip odds reflect deep uncertainty about whether LLM advances will translate into the sustained, adversarial conversation required by the Longbets format, not just raw capability gains.

Yes54¢

No46¢

Yes ≈ 54% chance

Ɱ744K Vol▲ 0pts3y

Polymarket

Open

Will any AI model reach 1600 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?

Yes23¢

No77¢

Yes ≈ 23% chance

$8K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

Will SpaceX's Starship launch from Florida before Aug 1, 2026 — Before Aug 1, 2026

Yes2¢

No98¢

Yes ≈ 2% chance

$27.2K Vol▲ 0pts5d

Manifold· Play

Open

Will GPT-6 be released before January 1, 2027?

Yes85¢

No15¢

Yes ≈ 85% chance

Ɱ1.2K Vol▼ 3pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Natural Disaster in 2026?

Yes22¢

No78¢

Yes ≈ 22% chance

$228K Vol▼ 5pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

Will Haley Kalil be on the cover of 2027 Sports Illustrated Swimsuit Issue?

Yes25¢

No75¢

Yes ≈ 25% chance

$424 Vol▲ 0pts1y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will the EU publish final AI Act Article 73 incident guidance by Aug 2, 2026?

Yes30¢

No70¢

Yes ≈ 30% chance

Ɱ101 Vol▲ 0pts7d

Polymarket

Open

#1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on July 31?

Shadowrocket93¢

14 outcomes

$1.1K Vol▲ 3pts5d

Kalshi

Open

Tesla Optimus on sale before 2027? — Before 2027

Despite Tesla's strong EV sales, the Optimus humanoid robot has zero production count and Musk himself has rejected claims of being secretly ahead, making a 2026 public sale look highly unlikely.

Yes12¢

No88¢

Yes ≈ 12% chance

$335K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Google still be a big tech giant by the end of 2030?

Yes94¢

No6¢

Yes ≈ 94% chance

Ɱ2.9K Vol▲ 0pts4y

Polymarket

Open

Next Google Gemini Pro Model released on...?

No release by July 3196¢

32 outcomes

$371K Vol▼ 1pts5d

Kalshi

Open

Will Kate Upton be on the cover of 2027 Sports Illustrated Swimsuit Issue?

Yes6¢

No94¢

Yes ≈ 6% chance

$448 Vol▲ 0pts1y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will OpenAI announce a new model that EpochAI estimates is at least as large as GPT-4.5, before August 2026?

Yes23¢

No77¢

Yes ≈ 23% chance

Ɱ3.5K Vol▲ 0pts6d

Polymarket

Open

Will OpenAI announce glasses in 2026? — Glasses

Yes22¢

No78¢

Yes ≈ 22% chance

$57.5K Vol▲ 7pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

next Claude Opus debut score? — Above 1500

Yes25¢

No75¢

Yes ≈ 25% chance

$632 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Yann LeCun's new AI startup reaches $100M+ valuation by end of 2027?

Yes85¢

No15¢

Yes ≈ 85% chance

Ɱ1.9K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Will a Chinese company have one of the top 10 AI models by December 31? — #10

Yes97¢

No3¢

Yes ≈ 97% chance

$15.2K Vol▼ 0pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO? — Before Dec 1, 2026

Yes58¢

No42¢

Yes ≈ 58% chance

$28.1K Vol▲ 0pts4mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Qwen 4 (Alibaba Qwen) release date

Before November 202684¢

15 outcomes

Ɱ13.6K Vol▲ 0pts3mo

Polymarket

Open

Kimi K4 released by October 31, 2026?

Yes17¢

No83¢

Yes ≈ 17% chance

$3.3K Vol▼ 5pts3mo

Kalshi

Open

Will Waymo operate ride-hailing in Portland, OR before Jan 1, 2027?

Yes15¢

No85¢

Yes ≈ 15% chance

$4.1K Vol▲ 0pts5mo