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Tech prediction markets & live odds — page 10 | PredictPal · PredictPal

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Tech prediction markets

AI milestones, product launches, and company outcomes priced by prediction markets.

🔭 Compare tech odds across venues →

All AI 2383 Tech Company Valuations 889 Big tech & chips 606 Space 457 Science 269 Through 40 Elevator 15 Software Engineering Trends 14 Space Development 9 Space Tech & Exploration ✨ 8 Software Industry Trends 5 Streamer 2

4,481 markets · page 10 of 187

Manifold· Play

Open

Will the next version of Microsoft Windows operating system (Windows 12) be released before Grand Theft Auto 6?

Yes24¢

No77¢

Yes ≈ 24% chance

Ɱ3.3K Vol▲ 0pts2y

Polymarket

‹ Prev1…89101112…187Next ›

Open

Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1530 by December 31? — ↑ 1530

Yes34¢

No67¢

Yes ≈ 34% chance

$1.2K Vol▼ 2pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

Will two SpaceX Starships dock together before 2028? — Before 2028

Yes65¢

No35¢

Yes ≈ 65% chance

$52.8K Vol▲ 0pts1y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will AI contribute novel theorywork to agent foundations before 2028?

Yes31¢

No69¢

Yes ≈ 31% chance

Ɱ276 Vol▲ 0pts1y

Polymarket

Open

Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher? — 60%+

Yes19¢

No81¢

Yes ≈ 19% chance

$3.2K Vol▼ 4pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

Will any AI model have a score of at least 1520 before Jan 1, 2027 — At least 1520 score

Yes37¢

No63¢

Yes ≈ 37% chance

$7.3K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

At the end of 2026, will there be any European model that ranks higher than a model currently on LLM Agent Arena?

Yes32¢

No68¢

Yes ≈ 32% chance

Ɱ107 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by July 31, 2026?

Yes3¢

No97¢

Yes ≈ 3% chance

$87K Vol▼ 0pts5d

Kalshi

Open

Will Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket launch before Oct 2026? — Before October

Yes1¢

No99¢

Yes ≈ 1% chance

$76.8K Vol▲ 0pts2mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029?

The market is pricing a slight edge for a machine passing a specific, high-bar version of the Turing test by 2029, but the near-coin-flip odds reflect deep uncertainty about whether LLM advances will translate into the sustained, adversarial conversation required by the Longbets format, not just raw capability gains.

Yes54¢

No46¢

Yes ≈ 54% chance

Ɱ744K Vol▲ 0pts3y

Polymarket

Open

Which company has #1 AI model end of July? (Style Control On)

Anthropic98¢

26 outcomes

$126K Vol▲ 0pts4d

Kalshi

Open

Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global - Tv Shows: #1 search

Stranger Things19¢

6 outcomes

$318 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will GPT-6 be released before January 1, 2027?

Yes85¢

No15¢

Yes ≈ 85% chance

Ɱ1.2K Vol▼ 3pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Best Chinese AI Company end of August?

Alibaba66¢

25 outcomes

$20K Vol▲ 2pts1mo

Kalshi

Open

Will a Chinese AI model be #1 this year? — Before 2027

Yes17¢

No83¢

Yes ≈ 17% chance

$112K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will the EU publish final AI Act Article 73 incident guidance by Aug 2, 2026?

Yes30¢

No70¢

Yes ≈ 30% chance

Ɱ101 Vol▲ 0pts7d

Polymarket

Open

Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026?

Yes46¢

No54¢

Yes ≈ 46% chance

$14.9K Vol2mo

Kalshi

Open

Will the B200 compute per hour price be above $6.76 on Jul 31? — Above $6.76

Yes51¢

No49¢

Yes ≈ 51% chance

$425 Vol▲ 0pts5d

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Google still be a big tech giant by the end of 2030?

Yes94¢

No6¢

Yes ≈ 94% chance

Ɱ2.9K Vol▲ 0pts4y

Polymarket

Open

Second-best Text Arena Math AI Lab end of August?

Other50¢

34 outcomes

$1.7K Vol▲ 0pts1mo

Kalshi

Open

Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global - Athletes: #1 search

Erling Haaland44¢

11 outcomes

$1.4K Vol▲ 1pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will OpenAI announce a new model that EpochAI estimates is at least as large as GPT-4.5, before August 2026?

Yes23¢

No77¢

Yes ≈ 23% chance

Ɱ3.5K Vol▲ 0pts6d

Polymarket

Open

Will there be a Super El Niño this winter (2026–27)?

Yes96¢

No4¢

Yes ≈ 96% chance

$2K Vol▲ 1pts8mo

Kalshi

Open

When will the FDA approve retatrutide (LY3437943)? — Before Jul 1, 2027

Yes50¢

No50¢

Yes ≈ 50% chance

$7.2K Vol▲ 0pts11mo