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Tech prediction markets & live odds — page 101 | PredictPal · PredictPal

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Tech prediction markets

AI milestones, product launches, and company outcomes priced by prediction markets.

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All AI 3102 Tech Company Valuations 1169 Big tech & chips 933 Space 784 Science 589 Through 40 Software Engineering Trends 16 Elevator 16 Space Development 12 Space Tech & Exploration ✨ 11 Software Industry Trends 5 Streamer 2

3,310 markets · page 101 of 138

Manifold· Play

Open

What will be true about the person who creates AGI?

He will resolves this market for being a CEO of the AGI company, not for being the well recognized AGI creator90¢

11 outcomes

Ɱ1.9K Vol5mo

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Which model family will rule the LMSYS Arena in 2026?

‹ Prev1…99100101102103…138Next ›

Claude (Anthropic)83¢

10 outcomes

Ɱ3.3K Vol5mo

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Tesla introduces model which has a options choice giving >=600 mile range per charge before 2031

Yes32¢

No68¢

Yes ≈ 32% chance

Ɱ63 Vol▲ 0pts4y

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What will be the P(doom) of these individuals 6 months after ASI has been created but hasn't wiped out humanity yet?

Eliezer Yudkowsky89¢

10 outcomes

Ɱ410 Vol3y

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Will AI achieve superintelligence in music composition by 2026?

Yes10¢

No90¢

Yes ≈ 10% chance

Ɱ3.8K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Will we have a scenario like "2030: Takeover" as defined in AI 2027 before the end of Q1, 2030?

Yes19¢

No81¢

Yes ≈ 19% chance

Ɱ1.1K Vol▲ 0pts3y

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Gary Marcus 2029 AI predications

Some current (2025) occupations, though, will no longer exist.90¢

9 outcomes

Ɱ730 Vol2y

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What will be the male/female split of the most popular AI girlfriend/boyfriend app in 2035?

Male42¢

4 outcomes

Ɱ2.9K Vol8y

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OpenAI highest valuation by end of September 2026

≥$0.6T100¢

10 outcomes

Ɱ1.5K Vol2mo

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Will an LLM have been used as part of the composition a work which wins the Nobel Prize in Literature by 2040?

Yes51¢

No49¢

Yes ≈ 51% chance

Ɱ156 Vol▲ 0pts14y

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Will Japan have a general AI company with a valuation of $1 bil+ primarily doing research inside of its borders by 2028?

Yes73¢

No27¢

Yes ≈ 73% chance

Ɱ2.2K Vol▲ 0pts1y

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Which MATH-AI 23 works will have >50 Google Scholar citations by end of 2026?

Magnushammer: A Transformer-Based Approach to Premise Selection100¢

4 outcomes

Ɱ195 Vol5mo

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Anthropic annualized revenue run rate by end of 2026?

>=$10B100¢

12 outcomes

Ɱ16.4K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Will "You're an AI Expert – Not an Influencer" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

The market heavily doubts this meta-status post will crack LessWrong's top 50 — the community tends to reward technical AI safety work over commentary on identity — but a shift in discourse around 'influencer vs. expert' could narrow the gap.

Yes14¢

No86¢

Yes ≈ 14% chance

Ɱ80 Vol▲ 0pts1y

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Will Anthropic release a (competetive) opensource LLM in the next 3 years?

Yes38¢

No62¢

Yes ≈ 38% chance

Ɱ2K Vol▲ 0pts2y

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Will the first AI Superintelligence be installed on a classical computer, a quantum computer, or some other alternative?

Classical Computer70¢

4 outcomes

Ɱ747 Vol3y

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Will I no longer identify as a libertarian or neoliberal as a result of an AI convincing me by 2030?

Yes30¢

No70¢

Yes ≈ 30% chance

Ɱ81 Vol▲ 0pts3y

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The legal free-for-all that characterized the first few years of the AI boom will be definitively over in 2026

The market is essentially a coin flip, reflecting deep uncertainty about whether a comprehensive AI legal framework will crystallize by year-end 2026, despite a historical pattern of slow regulatory maturation.

Yes53¢

No47¢

Yes ≈ 53% chance

Ɱ475 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Is the "Game of Thrones" theory of what happened at OpenAI broadly accurate?

Yes26¢

No74¢

Yes ≈ 26% chance

Ɱ857 Vol▲ 0pts1y

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Does an AI disaster kill at least 100 people before 2040?

Yes81¢

No19¢

Yes ≈ 81% chance

Ɱ2.2K Vol▲ 0pts13y

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Will Jose Luis Ricon and Cathy Tie both engineer a chimeric mouse model together by EOY2030?

Yes43¢

No57¢

Yes ≈ 43% chance

Ɱ15 Vol▲ 0pts4y

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@iruletheworlmo (user on X) recently claimed that openai has achieved AGI do you agree with this claim?

Yes19¢

No82¢

Yes ≈ 19% chance

Ɱ5K Vol▲ 0pts3y

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Will Anthropic or OpenAI introduce a US$2000 per month consumer-facing plan in 2026?

Yes14¢

No86¢

Yes ≈ 14% chance

Ɱ440 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Which of the following will happen by the end of 2030?

Microsoft releases at least a public beta version of Windows that uses no C/C++ code17¢

2 outcomes

Ɱ1.3K Vol4y